The Nifty 50 is on course to record its best ever gains
in a financial year in over a decade. The index had rallied 26.6 per cent thus far in the first
11 months of FY24. Other than the nearly 71 per cent surge in FY21, the best
year returns stand at 26.7 per cent in FY15.
Over the past 11 months, the Nifty has ended higher on 8
occasions (every month) and has delivered an average return of 2.2 per cent
as of February 2024. However, the rally seems to have lost momentum in recent
months, with net returns of -0.1 per cent and 1.2 per cent in the last two
months, well below the overall average.
The sharp run in the markets, especially in the mid-and small cap segments, has made valuations expensive, said Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, which is the biggest near-term
riskaccording to him.
"The market looks expensive, most particularly from
a midcap standpoint. The Nifty Midcap 100 Index is trading at 25.9x one-year
forward earnings, compared with 20.2x for the Nifty. These valuations should
be seen in the context of the acceleration in growth, which should be
anticipated as a con sequence of the developing capex cycle, combined with
the continuing commitment to government-funded capex," Wood said in his
recent note to investors, GREED & fear.
That said, among individual stocks, Adani Enterprises and
Adani Ports have gained consistently every month rising up to 119 per cent in
FY24. HDFC Bank has been the common loser every month, and has lost 12 per cent
during this period.
Another worrying factor seems to be the breadth of the
rally, which got narrower in the last three months, and now seems even-steven
with an equal number of stocks rising and falling within the Nifty 50 space.
In the first six months of FY24, 29 of the Nifty 50
stocks outperformed the benchmark index 50 in terms of monthly returns.
However, in December 2023, even as the Nifty zoomed nearly 8 per cent, only
26 stocks outperformed the benchmark with higher returns.
In February, while the Nifty 50 ended with a gain of 1.2
per cent, with 26 stocks underperforming in the NSE benchmark. The monthly
average returns for the Nifty 50 stocks stood at 0.1 per cent.
The breadth got more skewed on the broader Nifty 500
index. While the index ended 1.5 per cent higher last month, almost 300 out
of the Nifty 500 stocks underperformed the underlying index.
For FY24, the Nifty 500 index has gained 38 per cent, out
of which almost 19 per cent of the rally post August 2023 has come of thinner
market breadth, with on an average 270 stocks underperforming the index in the
last six months.
"The markets are undergoing a healthy consolidation
phase after a sharp run in 2023. There is no negative catalyst for the
markets on the horizon in the short term. The markets may remain buoyant on elevated
valuations. While the indices may remain range-bound and consolidate,
stock-specific action is likely to continue depending on news flow,"
said Vaibhav Sanghavi, chief executive officer at ASK Hedge Solutions.
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